Published On: Tue, Sep 24th, 2019

Tropical Storm Karen path map: Latest euro model, NOAA charts and spaghetti models | World | News


Tropical Storm Karen is strengthening as it progresses Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this afternoon. Weather conditions resulting from the storm have caused a search for a missing woman in Kentucky in the US Virgin Islands to be suspended as the storm nears. A magnitude 6.0 rattled Puerto Rico yesterday evening as residents prepared for the strong storm to hit. Slow strengthening is expected to steadily continue over the coming days, but what do the latest euro model, NOAA charts and spaghetti models predict for the storm’s progression?

According to NOAA’s latest forecast advisory, issued at 2pm AST (7pm BST), Karen was located near latitude 17.5 north, longitude 66.0 west, which is approximately 65 miles south of San Juan, Puerto Rico, and 80 miles west of St. Croix.

Karen has grown stronger since its previous advisory, as the centre of the storm has reformed a little to the west.

The NOAA reports there are three tropical storm warnings are in effect for: the US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico including Vieques and Culebra, and the British Virgin Islands.

The scientific agency’s advisory reads: “Karen has moved erratically during the past few hours as the centre has re-formed a little to the west.

“However, it is expected to resume a motion toward the north near 8mph (13kmh) this afternoon.

“A north-northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is forecast tonight through Wednesday night.

“On the forecast track, the centre of Karen will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this afternoon and then move over the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday.

“Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 45mph (70kmh) with higher gusts.

“Additional slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days.

“Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130km) mainly to the southeast of the center.

“Surface observations indicate that wind gusts to tropical-storm force are occurring over portions of the Virgin Islands and southeastern Puerto Rico.”

Currently the NOAA predicts the storm will reach maximum sustained wind speeds of 69mph (60kts).

There are two other storms whirling across the Atlantic ocean now: tropical storm Lorenzo and tropical storm Jerry.

According to the forecasters, Lorenzo is located at latitude 12.4 north, longitude 29.3 west, roughly 370 miles west southwest of the southernmost Cabo Verde islands.

The storm is moving west northwest at 16mph which is predicted to continue this motion through early Thursday before it begins to head northwestwards on Thursday through Friday.

Currently, the storm has maximum sustained winds of 65mph and is moving west northwest at 16mph.

The final storm, tropical storm Jerry is located at latitude 30.9 north, longitude 69.1 west, about 270 miles west southwest of Bermuda.

Jerry is moving northwards at around 7mph and is predicted to turn to the northeast by tonight, followed by a turn to the east northeast on Wednesday.

The centre of the storm is anticipated to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday during which time it is expected to gradually weaken.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the centre and Jerry is currently moving at 50mph.



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