Published On: Mon, Aug 19th, 2019

Hurricane tracker: NHC monitors three systems churning on either side of USA | World | News

The Atlantic and East Pacific hurricane seasons officially run from June through to the end of November. However, the sharpest increase in activity usually comes between August 20 and September 11, which means authorities are on full alert to track incoming weather systems. Currently, there are three off the United States coasts which the NHC is monitoring – one in the Atlantic and two in the East Pacific.

The Atlantic disturbance is forming around 200 miles (321km) east-northeast of Norfolk, Virginia.

The NHC reported thunderstorm activity has increased this morning around the “well-defined low-pressure system”.

Forecasters believe there is “still a slight chance for significant organisation to occur through today while the system moves northeastward.”

However, conditions are expected to become unfavourable for tropical cyclone development on Tuesday, and the chances of the system becoming a major storm are only around 10 percent.

READ MORE: Hurricane track: 85 percent of US hurricanes happen after August 15

On the East Pacific side, two larger and more organised systems are at play.

The first is an elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico.

The system is still disorganised and thundery, but the NHC said: “Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is expected to form by Tuesday or Wednesday.”

The system is expected to move west-northwest at about 10mph (16km/h) parallel to the coast of Mexico.

READ MORE: Hurricane tracker: ‘Prepare your family’ Peak of hurricane season

While no direct hit is forecast at this stage, the NHC said the disturbance could produce “heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding” across parts of Guatemala and Mexico over the coming days.

The system has a 90 percent chance of formation over the next five days.

The second system in the East Pacific is a bit further out to sea, but is already well-defined.

The disturbance is churning about 900 miles (1,448km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.

READ MORE: African dust storms ‘the size of continental US’ suppress hurricanes

The system is producing thunderstorms and is expected to become a tropical depression in the coming days as it moves westward.

The system has a 60 percent chance of formation over the next five days.

This uptick in activity is in keeping with the annual trends of hurricane development for these parts.

Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said: “Indications are that inhibiting factors for tropical development, such as dry air, dust and strong wind shear over the Atlantic basin will start to relax during the week of August 18 to 25.”

Flare-ups of Saharan dust drifting over from Africa have been seen in recent weeks.

While this isn’t unusual for summer, it’s now time when moist air becomes more plentiful and the amount of dust and wind shear begin to diminish: perfect for building hurricanes.

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