Published On: Fri, Aug 23rd, 2019

Brexit news: Labour could block general election, reveals polling guru Sir John Curtice | Politics | News

Sir John is one of Britain’s most-well known and respected polling experts, and suggested despite ’s calls for a , party colleagues may be less keen. The 2011 Fixed Term Parliaments Act provides only two circumstances in which a can be called prior to 2022, either by Parliament resolving a two-thirds majority that there should be one, or after a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister.

If the polls at this point were to be indicating the Brexit Party votes have fallen away, the Tories are way ahead, if I was the Labour Party all of a sudden I would be saying it is not a terribly good idea to hold a general election just before Christmas

Sir John Curtice

In order to force a snap election, Mr Johnson would need to take the first route – and Sir John said: “The public rate Boris Johnson more highly than they do , but they don’t rate either of them terribly much because at the end of the day most Conservatives can’t stand Jeremy Corbyn and Mr Corbyn is not the unalloyed joy of those in his own party. “Remain voters – very few of them think much of Boris Johnson. “If the polls at this point were to be indicating the Brexit Party votes have fallen away, the Tories are way ahead, if I was the Labour Party all of a sudden I would be saying it is not a terribly good idea to hold a general election just before Christmas.”

Jeremy Corbyn

Jeremy Corbyn wants an election – but Labour MPs may be less keen (Image: GETTY)

Boris Johnson Emmanuel Macron

Boris Johnson and Emmanuel Macron in Paris yesterday (Image: GETTY)

Nevertheless, Sir John said there were no guarantees for even if he did succeed in triggering an early vote.

He explained: “The Tory lead in the polls is not enough for them to be sure that they would get an overall majority.

“They could just end up with more or less exactly the same number of MPs as they have at the moment.


“It looks as though the fall in the Brexit Party vote has stopped, and it has stopped at roughly the level you might have guessed it would stop at — basically the 13, 14 percent level that UKIP were at in 2015, which looks as though it is the size of the committed Eurosceptic vote.”

It may therefore be difficult to make further inroads into Brexit Party support, Sir John said, adding: “The Tories have squeezed the Brexit Party vote to a fair degree, but if one believes the self-reports of Brexit Party voters, what is left is going to be more difficult to squeeze.”

Neither was compromise necessarily a good idea if wants to win their support.

Brexit Party to fight for ‘clean-break Brexit 17.4 million voted’ for [ANALYSIS]
Why Corbyn’s general election plan will not stop no deal Brexit [COMMENT]
Jeremy Corbyn to face ‘enormous pressure’ to back anti-Brexit PM claim [VIDEO]

Sir John Curtice

Sir John Curtice is one of Britain’s mostly highly respected pollsters (Image: GETTY)

Theresa May

Nobody liked Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement, said Sir John (Image: GETTY)

Sir John said: “If we crash out without a deal that will maximise Johnson’s chances of bringing those folk over.”

Referring to the hardline Eurosceptic vice-chairman of the European Research Group, he said: “If on the other hand he strikes a deal and says it isn’t good enough a deal, and he only gets it over the line by relying on pro-Brexit Labour MPs because in the end the Steve Bakers of this world still aren’t willing to stomach whatever compromise he has made, then against that backdrop, maybe the balance will not be so obvious because the Tory party will still look divided.”

Alternative approaches, namely a second referendum, or a return to Theresa May’s much-criticised withdrawal agreement, were also deeply problematic, Sir John argued.

Nigel Farage

Sir John suggested the Tories may struggle to squeeze more Brexit Party votes (Image: GETTY)

Jeremy Corbyn

A timeline tracing Jeremy Corbyn’s views on the EU (Image: Daily Express)

In terms of the former, he said: “If we are talking about Remain vs Leave, the question that was asked three years ago, at the moment it is 52 percent Remain, 48 percent for Leave.

“The reason it is slightly pro-Remain is not because the Leave vote is markedly softer rather those people who did not vote three years ago, if they express a view, are consistently in the polls two-to-one in favour of Remain. This is the crucial vote.

“The question is whether this group would turn out to vote or not.”

In terms of Mrs May’s deal, he said: “The one thing on which Remainers and Leavers are agreed is that is c***.

Steve Baker

Sir John made reference to “the Steve Bakers of this world” (Image: GETTY)

“Leave voters don’t like it because it is too soft, Remain voters don’t like it because we are leaving.”

As for the prospects of the UK ultimately leaving the bloc without a withdrawal agreement in place, currently rated at 13/10 by bookmaker Paddy Power, Sir John said support for no deal “seems to be very stable.”

He added: “If we crash out without a deal, certainly the polling on indicates if people think it is a result of EU intransigence they are more likely to back no deal, but so far it has tended to be both sides that get the blame.”

In the days leading up to Mrs May’s resignation there had been a “complete consensus” the UK was at fault, he said.

Source link

Most Popular News