Published On: Wed, Sep 4th, 2019

Brexit News: Farage as PM? Polling guru John Curtice’s predictions on general election | UK | News


Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party could be the kingmaker of an imminent general election, according to polling expert Sir John Curtice. The statistics professor said that the showdown between Mr Farage and the Prime Minister will be more significant than between Jeremy Corbyn and Mr Johnson. Speaking to RT, Sir John pointed out that Boris Johnson’s hardline approach to Brexit has sparked a huge revival for the Tories.

Conservatives have managed to win over a considerable amount of Leave voters in recent weeks, adding about eight points to their polling average.

The polling guru said: “All of his prospects rest on trying to unite the Leave vote behind the Tory party.

“He has to convince those who would vote for the Brexit Party by suggesting that splitting the Leave vote would let Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street.

“The counter argument from Farage will be, Boris has been forced to the polls because his party is divided – why should voters think he can deliver now?”

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Sir John also claimed that current polling gives the Conservatives “slightly more than 50 percent” likelihood to win an overall majority.

He then said the battle between Mr Farage and Mr Johnson will be the most important battle in the general election.

Current polling suggests about half of the Leave voters back the Conservatives, with about a quarter still backing the Brexit Party.

More than half of Leave voters want to leave without a deal as their first preference.

Sir John went on to warn the Labour Party against pushing for an election campaign.

He said: “Labour have shown no sign of recovery.

“They has lost serious ground with both Remain and Leave voters.

“They are down to 25 percent in the polls. It is stronger among Remainers than Leavers, but they are sharing the Remain vote with the Liberal Democrats.

“The Remain vote is divided while Johnson could unite the Leave vote.”



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